What Will Happen In 2025
I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun. 1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. 2/ Waymo w...
Startup Mortality Rates
A friend of mine stopped by the USV office the other morning and asked me about startup mortality rates. Her business sells to startups a...
What Will Happen In 2024
As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this ti...
What Will Happen In 2025
I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun. 1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. 2/ Waymo w...
Startup Mortality Rates
A friend of mine stopped by the USV office the other morning and asked me about startup mortality rates. Her business sells to startups a...
What Will Happen In 2024
As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this ti...


I didn't learn much in business school.
For me, it was a way to move from being an engineer to an investor. And as such, it was super valuable. As an education, not so much. It did lead to MBA Mondays, which was a ton of fun to write. But I digress.
There are a few occasions in business school that were "aha moments" for me. One was in a class called "Speculative Markets." The professor explained that speculating and hedging were two sides of a trade. And that there would not be hedging without speculating.
I had never considered that. It made me think.
Speculating has a dirty quality to it. One thinks of Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems or George Soros making billions betting against the British Pound. How can speculation be good?
Hedging is different. A farmer in Iowa needs to hedge the risk of a bad winter so she can keep the family farm she inherited from her parents. How can hedging be bad?
And yet you need one to exist for the other to exist. That's powerful. At least it was for me at the young age of twenty-four.
I thought of all of this when I read Murtaza's thoughtful musings on writer coins this morning. In it, he writes:
Part of the difficulty is philosophical: journalism is a public good, not a speculative asset.
There it is. The dirty word. Reading that makes me feel bad.
And yet, what if he had written this?
Journalism is a public good and we should invest in it.
Reading that would make me feel good.
Investment needs speculation.
If you make an investment and you can't sell it, no matter what the price, then you are way less likely to make it.
If you make an investment and there is a highly liquid market that allows you to exit the investment any time you want in a nanosecond, then you are way more likely to make that investment.
If journalism needs investment, then, sadly, it also needs speculation.
That is how it is.
As icky as it feels at times.
I didn't learn much in business school.
For me, it was a way to move from being an engineer to an investor. And as such, it was super valuable. As an education, not so much. It did lead to MBA Mondays, which was a ton of fun to write. But I digress.
There are a few occasions in business school that were "aha moments" for me. One was in a class called "Speculative Markets." The professor explained that speculating and hedging were two sides of a trade. And that there would not be hedging without speculating.
I had never considered that. It made me think.
Speculating has a dirty quality to it. One thinks of Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems or George Soros making billions betting against the British Pound. How can speculation be good?
Hedging is different. A farmer in Iowa needs to hedge the risk of a bad winter so she can keep the family farm she inherited from her parents. How can hedging be bad?
And yet you need one to exist for the other to exist. That's powerful. At least it was for me at the young age of twenty-four.
I thought of all of this when I read Murtaza's thoughtful musings on writer coins this morning. In it, he writes:
Part of the difficulty is philosophical: journalism is a public good, not a speculative asset.
There it is. The dirty word. Reading that makes me feel bad.
And yet, what if he had written this?
Journalism is a public good and we should invest in it.
Reading that would make me feel good.
Investment needs speculation.
If you make an investment and you can't sell it, no matter what the price, then you are way less likely to make it.
If you make an investment and there is a highly liquid market that allows you to exit the investment any time you want in a nanosecond, then you are way more likely to make that investment.
If journalism needs investment, then, sadly, it also needs speculation.
That is how it is.
As icky as it feels at times.
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16 comments
Hi Casters. I read a post by @mazmhussain about writer coins this morning and it inspired me to write this https://avc.xyz/investment-needs-speculation
speculators are strictly middlemen, to work they need fundamental sources and sinks to operate inbetween. I’m very bullish on tokens as a technology, but I think the hard questions still remain: for a given usage of a token (there are many flavors ofc), what are the fundamental sinks?
what’s the best way to speculate on journalism today in your opinion?
I don't have a good answer to that but writer coins are absolutely a terrific experiment in that
Read the headline, speculate on the the content of the article from that, don’t read article, present information as if well informed
Hey garret can you give me a follow
Agree with the title
I had a question about what writer coin is. It's interesting that you posted this article. I'm going to read it. Of course, I also published my first article in the paragraph. 🦋🙏💕
I read this post it was great but I just want to know if this is continuing or not? Because I felt it didn't have a complete ending. Also I will follow your investment tips more seriously
I just think writer/creator coins make zero sense. I’d rather stream micro payments or tip as I read or do a traditional subscription, than deal with some silly token that has zero market or speculative value. I guess if content is paywalled and you have to hold the token to access, it might make sense, but that’s a short term revenue stream that doesn’t make business sense for a creator.
what do you think has held back tipping from becoming a meaningful revenue stream for journalism? or really any creative effort? there has been a ton of experimentation w/ tipping and micro-payments, voluntary & sometimes for utility (e.g., pay $1 to read a post). but haven't really seen any of these turn into a meaningful revenue streams like, say, paid subscriptions and ads / sponsorships (or even events, merch, & other ancillary revenue).
I think there is a cultural block for tipping at times, but can't be sure. Don't actually have data on it. I personally would prefer streaming micropayments for everything I use on the web either by access gating or time. Just needs to be seamless for the most part. Maybe a way for creator to set a rate and then I set a rate range I am willing to pay, but if they are higher, then I have to approve if I want to view. Could also setup micropayments by site or url, etc. Need rates that don't hurt, but with enough readers is large enough to make creators money. Seems to me incentives align nicely that way. Could also build in a mechanism that slightly increases rates to reward creators when something is shared elsewhere many times. Build incentives into it. This is the model we are thinking through with Kilroy.
❤️
You’re right, nice note. Speculation is the cream that sits on top of the margin of safety milk
Great job my friend
Roses are red. Violets are blue. I’m sorry, but I’m not meant for you.