What Will Happen In 2025
I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun. 1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. 2/ Waymo w...
Startup Mortality Rates
A friend of mine stopped by the USV office the other morning and asked me about startup mortality rates. Her business sells to startups a...
What Will Happen In 2024
As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this ti...
What Will Happen In 2025
I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun. 1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025. 2/ Waymo w...
Startup Mortality Rates
A friend of mine stopped by the USV office the other morning and asked me about startup mortality rates. Her business sells to startups a...
What Will Happen In 2024
As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this ti...
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I read this in Yoni Rechtman's substack today:
oversized funds lead to overfunded companies leads to bad returns and more importantly bad outcomes for founders/businesses. We’ll get Softbank 2.0 but even more widespread: every company could be super lean and profitable but instead will be pushed toward undisciplined and ruinous spending
This is not a new state of play.
This has been the venture capital business for well over a decade now.
Every breakout company in our portfolios is offered 10x the money they need and most of them take it because how can you not turn down an endless supply of capital?
But of course, this dilutes the founders, the seed investors, the early VC investors, and also leads to wasteful and unproductive spending.
Yoni points out that this is happening at the same time that AI is making starting and building companies less expensive than ever.
Like Yoni, I don't think this conflict gets resolved any time soon.
But some founders are opting out of this nonsense and I do think we will see more of them do so.
It is easier than ever to bootstrap a company to sustainable operations. Some founders will do it. Others will notice. Maybe it will even become fashionable to do so.
At least one can hope.
I read this in Yoni Rechtman's substack today:
oversized funds lead to overfunded companies leads to bad returns and more importantly bad outcomes for founders/businesses. We’ll get Softbank 2.0 but even more widespread: every company could be super lean and profitable but instead will be pushed toward undisciplined and ruinous spending
This is not a new state of play.
This has been the venture capital business for well over a decade now.
Every breakout company in our portfolios is offered 10x the money they need and most of them take it because how can you not turn down an endless supply of capital?
But of course, this dilutes the founders, the seed investors, the early VC investors, and also leads to wasteful and unproductive spending.
Yoni points out that this is happening at the same time that AI is making starting and building companies less expensive than ever.
Like Yoni, I don't think this conflict gets resolved any time soon.
But some founders are opting out of this nonsense and I do think we will see more of them do so.
It is easier than ever to bootstrap a company to sustainable operations. Some founders will do it. Others will notice. Maybe it will even become fashionable to do so.
At least one can hope.
Fashionable is in the eye of the beholder ;)
Hi Casters. I read something this morning that made me want to talk a bit about the oversupply of capital in VC https://avc.xyz/drinking-from-a-firehose
oversupply of everything everywhere.
listening