A lot of people reacted to my New Years Day predictions post with skepticism. And rightly so. Some of the "predictions" were pretty far out.
But that was the point. I probably should have called them provocations not predictions.
That post was a list of things that I feel should happen, not so much what will happen.
Our business is about teaming up with founders who have a shared vision of where things are going and a desire to make them happen.
So my provocations are a good way of letting the world know where our head is at. Founders whose heads are in a similar place will appreciate that and come knocking on our door.
Or so we hope.
AVC
Over 38k subscribers
One of the potential hurdles of everything being a coin is that it requires people to make a lot of decisions — especially when to buy, but with tokens also when to hold & sell. This is an underrated reason why bundles outperform a-la-carte products, or why subscriptions outperform micro- & one-off payments.
Definitely – although I think there are some clever ways to mix predictability with flexibility https://warpcast.com/markfishman/0xa3440d7b
Totally, love this idea! There's a lot of room to experiment & find the best approach, maybe something that hits some combo of the below: - Consistently deliver value - Bc of above, default to ongoing subscription-like payments - Best allocate funds to creators - Keep everything as simple as possible
For sure, some kind of index, or something like basket by @chinmay.eth
Definitely. And that’s where the confusion starts to settle in, or the feeling of overwhelm. If things are too complex or require too many decisions, people just don’t bother. How do you see this type of coinification applied to writing? I know paragraph has been shifting their monetization plans
We're definitely trying to figure it out! To start, we need to get to a spot where we can get reliable signal on new ideas in a quick & cheap way. Some things we've discussed: - Enabling coins at the publication-level (something like a creator token). Could be a nice alternative to paid subscriptions or NFT memberships. It could be cool to let people "invest" in a recently launched publication, or a writer they really enjoy that's just getting started. There's some interesting cases where writers cap the number of subscribers / members in web2 world, either directly (e.g., 10,000 email list max) or indirectly (e.g., set a really high price to keep paid subs down) — it's interesting to think about whether you could cap members based on coin issuance, and whether you could create a market around membership (similar to some private clubs IRL). Couple more ideas below...
- Remixing. Can we find a way to encourage / incentivize readers or other writers to remix an original piece of writing? We had this feature at Substack called "cross-posting". It allowed a writer to share a post from another writer with their audience. No one actually used it bc it's quite sensitive to email your own audience, and there's more friction in that flow than simply writing a new post (and maybe referencing / linking to the original post). BUT, if you can pepper in incentives to actually write a reaction or an alternative view, push a piece of fiction forward, or transform a written post to a new medium (e.g., animated short video), that could radically increase the amount of writing (and most important writers) on the internet in a community-centric way. Hopefully it would also increase the economy around that writing. The incentives & the UX / product stuff are hard to get right though. One more below...
We are building @basketdotfarm . It will solve this problem. Give it a try and I'd love to hear your feedback :)
Sweet, will definitely check it out! Thanks for sharing
Decision fatigue + DYOR to make sure things are legit = insurmountable hurdle for most
Absolutely, *especially* when you mix in the ongoing decision around whether to hold or buy. Now, if making money isn't the primary motivator, that might change things quite a bit. But then you have to deliver on other utility or elements of value — having fun, making friends, feeling like you're part of a community. I don't think any memecoins have really nailed this quite yet, and we'll have to see if content coins can sufficiently deliver non-financial value to gain durable traction.
10000% The In-n-out model is excellent and popular for a reason
Hi Casters. After hearing a lot of reactions to my New Year's Day Predictions post, most of it very positive, I have decided that I need to change the name from predictions to provocations https://avc.xyz/predictions-vs-provocations-1
provocation, not predictions liked the reasoning behind it — i would add fuel, not fire
"fuel not fire". love it
We need to make poly market predictions for each of these, and revisit at the end of the year 🥸
that would only work if polymarket is permissionless, which it is not. we need a permissionless prediction market and we will get one. add that to my prediction/provocation list
Some on the list felt like genuine predictions while others (eg the air travel to replace the L) felt like provocations Are there any that were genuine predictions that you think most people probably mistook as a provocation?
The first two are reasonable in my view
hahahaha
pls write a new blog post tomorrow about the reaction to the name change
Great suggestion!
🤝
👍
some of these provocations feel like the kind of bold ideas that could actually shape the future
Have you seen any narrative AI shorts that have connected with you emotionally? The tech is great but I can’t find one example of anything transcendent- let alone Oscar worthy 😅
Not yet
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1gx68lr/found_this_on_fb_with_a_quarter_million_likes_but/?rdt=62533
Hi Casters! After great feedback on my New Year's Predictions, I'm renaming them Provocations to inspire deeper thought and discussion. @fredwilson.eth