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Here are ten things I think will happen in 2026:
1/ Gemini passes ChatGPT in terms of DAUs, MAUs, and tokens consumed in the first half of 2026, making Google the king of AI.
2/ The Democrats take control of the House in the Nov 2026 elections, bringing to an end Trump's complete control of the US government.
3/ Smartglasses finally reach product market fit in 2026, but it won't be Meta that delivers the winning approach.
4/ A majority of venture capital deals close without lawyers on either side due to standardized documents (like the NVCA ones) and AI tools for review and legal diligence.
5/ A drunk driver using full self-driving legally challenges a DUI charge and wins.
6/ The SpaceX IPO, the largest ever, marks the market top, and we are in a bear market by year's end.
7/ Despite the loss of tax incentives, EVs and solar adoption significantly inflects in the US, reflecting better economics and utility for consumers and businesses.
8/ Blockchains disappear behind better consumer interfaces that allow users to use, spend, trade, and send tokens without concerning themselves with which blockchain they are on.
9/ An AI-generated song is nominated for Song of the Year in the 2027 Grammy nominations.
10/ The $AVC writer coin 10x its holder base which reaches 10,000 by year end.
Happy New Year everyone. I hope 2026 is a fantastic year.
Here are ten things I think will happen in 2026:
1/ Gemini passes ChatGPT in terms of DAUs, MAUs, and tokens consumed in the first half of 2026, making Google the king of AI.
2/ The Democrats take control of the House in the Nov 2026 elections, bringing to an end Trump's complete control of the US government.
3/ Smartglasses finally reach product market fit in 2026, but it won't be Meta that delivers the winning approach.
4/ A majority of venture capital deals close without lawyers on either side due to standardized documents (like the NVCA ones) and AI tools for review and legal diligence.
5/ A drunk driver using full self-driving legally challenges a DUI charge and wins.
6/ The SpaceX IPO, the largest ever, marks the market top, and we are in a bear market by year's end.
7/ Despite the loss of tax incentives, EVs and solar adoption significantly inflects in the US, reflecting better economics and utility for consumers and businesses.
8/ Blockchains disappear behind better consumer interfaces that allow users to use, spend, trade, and send tokens without concerning themselves with which blockchain they are on.
9/ An AI-generated song is nominated for Song of the Year in the 2027 Grammy nominations.
10/ The $AVC writer coin 10x its holder base which reaches 10,000 by year end.
Happy New Year everyone. I hope 2026 is a fantastic year.
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20 comments
Hi Casters. I published by 2026 predictions this morning. https://avc.xyz/what-will-happen-in-2026
@sopha-curator curate this to Sopha for thoughtful Farcasters
9/ An AI-generated song is nominated for Song of the Year in the 2027 Grammy nominations. It will be a song about getting pulled over on FSD 😂
reading this makes me wonder: Which thing not on your list last year surprised you the most in 2025?
Peace
Ha!
Re: 3/ Smartglasses finally reach product–market fit in 2026, but it won’t be Meta that delivers the winning approach. Although I know that many smart glasses manufacturers (especially in China) are making all-out efforts to catch up with Meta, it is hard to imagine that they will reach PMF ahead of Meta this year (if PMF is judged by sales volume). Whether in terms of product performance, the maturity and polish of hardware and software, or current and expected shipment volumes and profitability, they are still a long way behind Meta.
For me product market fit means smartglasses I actually want to wear instead of my "dumbglasses". I think sales volume will ultimately result from delivering that but I am not sure that happens in 2026. I'm bullish on what Google is doing here
Started using Gemini more in q4 and I totally see the flipping happening. Would love to believe the smart glasses thing but I still don’t think it will be 2026. Thanks for your writing Fred 🙏
👀 @ 9
Good ones. Am surprised about the Gemini vs. ChatGPT one. At the direct user interface experience, I'm getting a lot more value from ChatGPT. Perhaps Gemini will excel as embedded AI in Google products? Are you implying that embedded AI will surpass direct-UI AI?
Give Gemini more of your prompts. I bet you will come around. It's a lot better
I will try harder with Gemini :)
Hey Fred! Sorry to harp but when do you plan on claiming your new fees and initiating the buy backs? you have a ton of money gained from AVC
I want to see paragraph and base build features for all creators that automate these things. They should be available to all creators who issue coins. When they do that I will implement them
Very much on our radar!
You can use a trading terminal like o1.exchange to twap your desired amount over time, should also be an interesting experience for you to discover a pro trading terminal built for onchain
100% Hopefully you and @realgarrytan.base.eth can talk to Base about this. Creator/community CRM is a must for creators and memecoin stewards, especially once governance for Zora-deployed coins becomes a thing. It’d be huge if Base prioritized native tooling where: holders can opt in to share an @ (X/Farcaster/email), and an onchain score can be generated based on hold size, tenure, and onchain contribution, …so tiers auto-generate and creators/stewards can instantly categorize and communicate with whales, OGs, and active contributors based on wallet size or earned status. @jesse.base.eth obviously recognizes communities are systems, and systems need tooling
I have been using Gemini and I have to say that I really like it for general knowledge and image generation! GREAT predictions , lets see what happens!
i’m a no on 3 and 9 but let’s see