I've done a lot of these January 1st look forward posts in the 20+ years I've been blogging. I've used many different approaches. I sometimes talk big themes, like I did last year. I sometimes focus on just one thing. And sometimes I just make a bunch of predictions. I am going to do the latter approach today because I feel like it and it's so much fun.
1/ Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025.
2/ Waymo will surpass Uber in rides taken in San Franciso and Los Angeles by the end of 2025.
3/ Direct bank to bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the US in 2025.
4/ A decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and produces a favorable outcome and Trump's FDA not only approves the drug but celebrates the approach.
5/ A housekeeper robot named Judy is launched by Dyson and it becomes a massive success, selling millions of units.
6/ NFT Art, left for dead at the end of 2024, makes a remarkable comeback and the MOMA purchases The 6529 Museum Of Art for an undisclosed sum.
7/ An AI doctor with the personality of Mr Rogers will treat millions of patients at zero cost in 2025.
8/ A bitcoin mining operation will pair with a wind farm in Newfoundland and grid scale battery storage to power an AI data center showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure.
9/ Arizona's ESA program attracts over 25% of K12 students in the state, leading to a number of local school closures.
10/ An AI produces an animated feature film that is nominated for an Oscar.
11/ An air taxi service launches in New York City offering an alternative to the L train commute.
12/ TikTok turns all videos into memecoins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges all over the world.
13/ The USV Librarian goes rogue, gets access to USV's crypto wallet, and starts making seed investments, one of which turns into a fund returner.
Like I said yesterday, "buckle up", 2025 is going to be wild.
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Interesting predictions from @fredwilson.eth Some good some goofy but all 13 are concrete and testable, very nice. https://avc.xyz/what-will-happen-in-2025-1 Here's what will actually happen. Game on and set a reminder: 1. Yes. DeepSeek makes this even more likely. 2. Yes, but only within SF, not LA. 3. Yes. 4. No. If we're lucky such a trial might start in 2025, but the remaining steps will take way longer than EOY. 5. Sure, yes (sounds like Fred has the inside scoop) 6. Yes specifically to the testable part = 6529 selling their collection. 7. Hard no if you mean an actual doctor that has authority to prescribe anything. 8. Yes (another inside scoop?) 9. No. 10. No and lol. AI might be used as part of a film production, as in that Coke commercial, but nothing more than that. 11. No. Looking forward to Uber x Joby but will be pushed back to 2026! 12. Absolutely not 13. Maybe if you mechanical turk it 🤣 "hii it's your friendly ai, are you raising?"
sadly we don't have permissionless prediction markets that are lit up automatically when i hit publish on this
Welcome to 2025 — we're back with the 27th edition of Paragraph Picks, highlighting a few hand-selected pieces from the past couple of weeks. Check them out & let us know which is your favorite!
In his annual tradition, @fredwilson.eth shares bold predictions for 2025, spanning advancements in AI, transportation, decentralized finance, education, and NFT art, while hinting at wild developments in crypto and entertainment. https://avc.xyz/what-will-happen-in-2025-1
@naomiii reflects on the lost art of listening, emphasizing its importance as an act of love, empathy, and connection in a world increasingly dominated by noise and self-centered communication. https://paragraph.xyz/@cryptonao/listening
@tpan reviews key 2024 Web3 trends and predicts the evolution of airdrop magnets, SocialFi, memecoins, prediction markets, interactive gameshows, and AI agents in shaping 2025 and beyond. https://paragraph.xyz/@tpan/350-a-2024-web3-with-tpan-recap
@yb explores emerging Q1 trends in the agent meta, covering the rise of agent frameworks, consumer agents, diversified trading agents, and the need for agent verifiability. "... what excites me the most is the idea that there are countless agents still yet to be developed across a wide array of asset classes." https://terminallyonchain.xyz/q1trends
Never thought I’d share any sort of (virtual) stage with @fredwilson.eth
Hi Casters. Here are my predictions for 2025. It's going to be a wild year. https://avc.xyz/what-will-happen-in-2025-1
How many of these predictions do you predict will be correct? Like if you actually had to bet on x of 13, what’s highest probability x?
zero to two
of all these predictions, the dyson housecleaning robot is the most exciting to me
Fred is an evTOL enjoyer - you love to see it. Great to read some near term *yet* big guesses on the year. Dyson Judy would slap.
some good markets here 🙏
need permissionless prediction markets, then a blog post like this would be fun.
one day 🙏
you’re specificity alongside your abiding to the “most entertaining outcome being the most likely” law is especially striking as we go into 2025. perhaps the underlying theme here is boldness with a dose of wtf
Exactly!!!